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Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science

Saturday , 2, September 2017 Leave a comment

RSSMix.com Mix ID 8249793:Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science on BenGummer.net

A BBC Radio 4 programme examines why experts often get predictions wrong – and meets the people who get them rightWhile accepting the Nobel prize for economics, Friedrich Hayek made an astonishing admission. Not only were economists unsure about their predictions, he noted, but their tendency to present their findings with the certainty of the language of science was misleading and “may have deplorable effects”.This revelation, made about 40 years ago, is a crucial one and yet it has been largely forgotten or ignored. One of the most striking comments before the EU referendum was from Michael Gove. He claimed people in Britain had had enough of experts. This has since become something of a mantra, and polling does indeed suggest that most people place little trust in expert predictions and pronouncements. Continue reading…

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Author: Adam Shaw RSSMix.com Mix ID 8249793

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